Ambiguity about the Custom Crate

[Sing]

WalleWu, I don’t think 50% for a Tier 2 reward (5* hero) is gonna be easy to reach.

Please see my post here: we need information to calculate the likelihood of the redistribution of drop chance after every opening.

Custom Crate Drop Rates and Detailed Mechanics - anyone here an ace in statistics and probability?

We need to figure out Custom Crate and see whether it is a decent deal to spend 5 bucks a week on it, as compared with the other choices we have. As far as I can tell this is how it works: (1) The player chooses certain rewards in 4 tiers Grand prize tier 1 - 1 item Tier 2 - 3 items Tier 3 - 6 items Tier 4 - 10 items. Total 20 items (2) In the first crate, each tier is assigned a certain drop chance, which is divided equally between each item in that tier. So, every item in the same tier ha…

You will see that the drop chance for Tier 1 is 0.26% and Tier 2 is 1.32%! It is gonna be a looong time for either of those numbers to reach 50% buddy.