Custom Crate Drop Rates and Detailed Mechanics - anyone here an ace in statistics and probability?

We need to figure out Custom Crate and see whether it is a decent deal to spend 5 bucks a week on it, as compared with the other choices we have.

As far as I can tell this is how it works:

(1) The player chooses certain rewards in 4 tiers

  • Grand prize tier 1 - 1 item
  • Tier 2 - 3 items
  • Tier 3 - 6 items
  • Tier 4 - 10 items.
  • Total 20 items

(2) In the first crate, each tier is assigned a certain drop chance, which is divided equally between each item in that tier. So, every item in the same tier has the same drop chance. This only applies to the first crate.

(3) When the first crate opens, the item that drops is removed from the item pool. The player is asked to choose another reward from that tier. So if a Tier 4 item dropped, you get to select another Tier 4 item to replace it (let’s call it “New Reward”). If a Tier 3 item dropped, you replace it with another Tier 3 item. And so on and so forth.

(4) However, the New Reward does NOT have the same drop chance as the others in that tier which you had previously selected - it has a lower drop chance. For example, if the drop chance of Tier 4 items in the original unopened first crate is 7%, the drop chance of the New Reward is 2%. We shall call the difference “Drop Chance Delta”.

(5) The Drop Chance Delta is then spread between all tiers the 19 rewards that you didn’t get. That is how HHG sells the Custom Crate as increasing your chances to get the rewards that you didn’t get.

However, we do not know - and I intend to find out:

(1) What the Drop Chance Delta is or how the Drop Chance Delta is calculated
(2) How the Drop Chance Delta is assigned to other tiers for the purposes of opening the next crate
(2) What it practically means in real life, as to how many crates you have to open to get a decent chance to land your Tier 1 or Tier 2 reward.

The only data points I have so far is as follows:

(1) I opened the first Free Crate

(2) My reward was 60 Hardscope Frags - a Tier 4 reward.

(3) I selected Cinder to replace Hardscope in Tier 4.

(4) Now the drop chances of Tier 1 to Tier 4 are as follows:

Tier 1: 0.26%
Tier 2: 1.32% each (x3)
Tier 3: 4.73% each (x6)
Tier 4: 7.23% for 9 items and 2.33% for Cinder <------ this is where the delta occurred and we need to know how it was distributed between Tier 4 and other Tiers.


If someone can share the Baseline Drop Chance for the Free Crate that would be super… then we can calculate how much the Drop Chance Delta is and from there work out the normalised distribution and drop rates for Crate 10, Crate 20, and so on.

Also if people got a Tier 1, 2, or Tier 3 drop from the Free Crate, what are your new drop chances?

Let’s figure this out cos the money for the Custom Crates can be used for other things if it’s a better economic proposition.


I like your calculations! But I’m just gonna wait and see. I can’t speculate on digit things. :slight_smile:

I’ve wondered about how it works too, although It appears to be VERY overpriced and definitely not worth it so I don’t really care to investigate too far into it. I’ll contribute my numbers though.

I opened a tier 2 reward (165 Razorback frags). My odds are now:

Tier 1 - 0.20%
Tier 2 - 1.26% (Old Rewards)
Tier 2 - 0.51% (New Reward)
Tier 3 - 4.54%
Tier 4 - 6.95%

I’m quite surprised that the ‘replacement’ item has a lower likelihood of being picked vs the item it replaced. Partially because it means all other items need to go up by a small amount to compensate which seems needlessly complicated.
Out of curiosity, you presumably still have the ability to ‘edit’ which items are in your crate, does doing so reset the likelihood for each item or does one item still have a lower percent chance?

On a different note, I really dislike when the odds are hidden behind ambiguous wording. Eg. Here they say something along the lines of “the odds of a good reward get better each time” but we don’t know what that means until we start opening.
eg. the 0.19% chance may improve to 1.9% or it may improve to 0.25%.
This same applies to tiered crates. Only the odds for the current tier are posted with a vague promise of ‘better odds’ for higher tiers but the odds are hidden from the player until they pay for the preceding tier.
Conjecture: I suspect the posting of odds are a requirement by the EU that we all benefit from (not to get political but thank God for the EU). If this is the case, I’m curious if the lack of details about odds for tiers runs afoul of those rules or are a way to get around them. Either way, whether it’s mandated or not, the odds for purchasable chance-based items should always be posted.

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As far as I know, the odds only need to be posted at the point of sale. The tiered crates, like you mentioned, are an annoying example of this, but I don’t believe it violates any law to do it this way.

Why are you surprised? This is the entire point of the crate and is the primary draw for opening it. If you continue to get lower tiered rewards from it, then eventually the odds will be very low for low-tier rewards. Likewise, the odds for pulling your chosen grand prize from the crate go up every single time you open the crate.

Any changes you make to the crate contents completely reset the progress you’ve made in raising percentages.

Am sure you guys have felt that drop rates for farming of late is stacked against us … and the push for us to subscribe for custom crates … go figure

As you noted, the drop rates for farming have been decreased but the number of items needed to build has also been drastically decreased. I can’t say it’s completely been a 1:1 wash because that’s not how it works, but my subjective sense is that the new update actually makes most upgrades easier for most users (even putting aside the indiect benefit that players with large caches of items received).
There are many things to justifiably be upset about and wish to change, but don’t make the leap to alleging that all actions are a plot against players or a conspiracy.

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